Saturday, September 19, 2009
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Will the fiscal stimulus work?
As policy makers gear up to respond to the crisis, there is an incessant debate over what will work and what will not. One such recurring debate is about the efficacy of the fiscal stimulus. In what follows I list some interesting arguments from both sides of the debate.
Against the Fiscal Stimulus:
John Taylor has this good pictorial depiction of what is the effect of the rebate checks on consumption expenditure and it does seem that the fiscal stimulus did not work. A while back Robert Barro in this article argued that the best estimate of government expenditure multiplier is in the range of 0.8 and hence any expectation that the fiscal stimulus will work is misplaced. David Andolfatto has a good piece based on a IMF paper on fiscal multipliers.
For Fiscal Stimulus:
Kaushik Basu has an interesting take on how the crisis spread and what implications it holds for the policy response. His model seems to support a large fiscal stimulus at least of a temporary nature.
Arguing for fiscal stimulus based on Keynes's ideas is Paul Krugman. Interested readers are refereed to his writings on his blog. He also recently wrote a long piece criticizing the state of macroeconomics in the New York Times magazine. It is an interesting critique of the state of macroeconomic theory in the context of the current crisis. I am sure any response to his criticisms will constitute an even better food for thought.
Against the Fiscal Stimulus:
John Taylor has this good pictorial depiction of what is the effect of the rebate checks on consumption expenditure and it does seem that the fiscal stimulus did not work. A while back Robert Barro in this article argued that the best estimate of government expenditure multiplier is in the range of 0.8 and hence any expectation that the fiscal stimulus will work is misplaced. David Andolfatto has a good piece based on a IMF paper on fiscal multipliers.
For Fiscal Stimulus:
Kaushik Basu has an interesting take on how the crisis spread and what implications it holds for the policy response. His model seems to support a large fiscal stimulus at least of a temporary nature.
Arguing for fiscal stimulus based on Keynes's ideas is Paul Krugman. Interested readers are refereed to his writings on his blog. He also recently wrote a long piece criticizing the state of macroeconomics in the New York Times magazine. It is an interesting critique of the state of macroeconomic theory in the context of the current crisis. I am sure any response to his criticisms will constitute an even better food for thought.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Lucas's Rebuttal of Critics of Economics!
Criticizing economics and economists is in vogue. As the clouds of crisis show little signs of abating, a segment of population (read writers!) seems to be doing extremely well by joining this bandwagon. Economists could spun some theories and math to refute at least some of these criticisms. But it would not do much in terms of disparaging the well written accounts of failures of economists and their theories. Unfortunately, amongst us who actually can communicate well do not seem to be of any help in this regard.
So for what it is worth, this piece by Bob Lucas Jr. does a good job of speaking for all of us who lack the wit and word of the New York Times best sellers but who still like to delve in the esoteric world of bizarre abstractions we call models!
So for what it is worth, this piece by Bob Lucas Jr. does a good job of speaking for all of us who lack the wit and word of the New York Times best sellers but who still like to delve in the esoteric world of bizarre abstractions we call models!
Myths about the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
Fed Reserve of Cleveland’s researcher has some interesting things to say about the current crisis:
http://www.clevelandfed.org/For_the_Public/News_and_Media/Press_Releases/2009/20090722.cfm
Monday, July 20, 2009
Economics, Economists, and the Crisis
The Economist has some interesting perspectives on the state of economics and the crisis. To read click on the following links.
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=14031376
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14030288
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14030296
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displayStory.cfm?Story_ID=14031376
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14030288
http://www.economist.com/printedition/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14030296
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
On the Austrians and the New Keynesians!
Austrian Perspective on the Current Recession:
At a symposium on the crisis at a New England public university, a macroeconomist argued that the current crisis is precipitated by the Fed's policy of making housing affordable to the common man. A public economist argued that this argument is completely wrong. The housing bubble was created because a large number of people wanted to live beyond their means. Whom do you think the Austrians will side with? Click here to find out!
2008 Arrow Prize in Macroeconomics:
A while back Bills and Klenow analyzed some price data for the US and arrived at the conclusion that prices on an average changed every five months implying that the prices were not as rigid after all as the Keynesians would like them to be. But is this average frequency of change in prices a good indicator of price rigidity and does it discredit the Keynesian perspective on the effects of monetary policy? Click here to find out!
At a symposium on the crisis at a New England public university, a macroeconomist argued that the current crisis is precipitated by the Fed's policy of making housing affordable to the common man. A public economist argued that this argument is completely wrong. The housing bubble was created because a large number of people wanted to live beyond their means. Whom do you think the Austrians will side with? Click here to find out!
2008 Arrow Prize in Macroeconomics:
A while back Bills and Klenow analyzed some price data for the US and arrived at the conclusion that prices on an average changed every five months implying that the prices were not as rigid after all as the Keynesians would like them to be. But is this average frequency of change in prices a good indicator of price rigidity and does it discredit the Keynesian perspective on the effects of monetary policy? Click here to find out!
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Math and Indians!
I was reading this wonderful new book on math econ by Kamran Dadkhah published by Cengage Learning. He has this amazing introductory chapter on history and philosophy of math and using math in economics. I have rarely come across such an exciting introduction to mathematics, especially in an economics oriented text. The later chapters are also well written and book also tries gears you up to use software like MATLAB and MAPLE to solve problems. If I were to teach a course I would definitely give this book a try.
Having said this, I have to admit that I was bothered by one thing. The name of Indians and their contribution to mathematics was almost conspicuous by absence in the introductory chapter!
Well, I knew one thing for sure- the numerals and zero that we use today is courtesy the Indians. However, is that all that is to our contribution? At the risk of sounding jingoist, I decided to dig a bit deeper and guess what, the search was not in vain! The internet was full of pages on Indian mathematics and in what follows are just a few highlights of what I found. If your appetite is rightfully whetted after reading through feel free to click on the links listed below!
To start with there seems to be a long history of substantive contributions starting with pretty sophisticated standardized weight measures from the Indus Valley civilization (2500-1900 BCE) to geometry, trigonometry, algebra and astronomy in the later periods.
Indians thought about the Pythagoras theorem in Budhayana’s Sulbha Sutras dating back to 800 BC (Pythagoras comes sometime in 569 BC). Budhayana also gives the value of square root of 2 till five decimals among other things. Around 4th century BCE, Panini wrote his Sanskrit grammar which is a context free grammar and happens to be an example of early use of Boolean logic and the null operator. It is also thought of as a precursor of the Backus–Naur form (used in the description programming languages).
Around this time we also see important contributions from Jain mathematicians that include simple algebraic equations and the first use of word shunya to refer to zero. They also anticipated the combinatorial identity, Pascal’s triangle and Bernoulli coefficients.
The classical period of Indian mathematics is said to be the period between 400-1200 ACE. Aryabhata, Varahamihira, Brahmagupta, Bhaskara I, Mahavira, and Bhaskara II are some of the prominent names in this period. This period sees major ground breaking mathematical activity in the history of Indian mathematics. Aryabhatta in his Aryabhatiya comes up with first ever tables for sine and cosine values. He talks about quadratic equations, gave the value of pi till 4 decimals, whole number solutions to linear equations, performs astronomical calculations for solar and lunar eclipses and also proposes that the planets revolve around their own axis and also around the sun. This was way before Galileo's time and surprisingly nobody wanted Aryabhatta’s neck for proposing the theory!
Bhaskara II (11 century ACE) anticipated and conceived the concept of derivative, stated Role’s theorem and derived the differential of the sine function and contributed to development of Algebra and Trigonometry. His book Leelavati is a well known text among the Sanskrit scholars.
The Kerala School of mathematics between 1300-1600 ACE gave important results before they were rediscovered by the European world. Infinite geometric series, Taylor series, proof by induction and so on to name a few were discovered by this school.
If you want to know more click on the following links:
1. Indian Mathematics on Wikipedia
2. Indian Mathematics Index
Having said this, I have to admit that I was bothered by one thing. The name of Indians and their contribution to mathematics was almost conspicuous by absence in the introductory chapter!
Well, I knew one thing for sure- the numerals and zero that we use today is courtesy the Indians. However, is that all that is to our contribution? At the risk of sounding jingoist, I decided to dig a bit deeper and guess what, the search was not in vain! The internet was full of pages on Indian mathematics and in what follows are just a few highlights of what I found. If your appetite is rightfully whetted after reading through feel free to click on the links listed below!
To start with there seems to be a long history of substantive contributions starting with pretty sophisticated standardized weight measures from the Indus Valley civilization (2500-1900 BCE) to geometry, trigonometry, algebra and astronomy in the later periods.
Indians thought about the Pythagoras theorem in Budhayana’s Sulbha Sutras dating back to 800 BC (Pythagoras comes sometime in 569 BC). Budhayana also gives the value of square root of 2 till five decimals among other things. Around 4th century BCE, Panini wrote his Sanskrit grammar which is a context free grammar and happens to be an example of early use of Boolean logic and the null operator. It is also thought of as a precursor of the Backus–Naur form (used in the description programming languages).
Around this time we also see important contributions from Jain mathematicians that include simple algebraic equations and the first use of word shunya to refer to zero. They also anticipated the combinatorial identity, Pascal’s triangle and Bernoulli coefficients.
The classical period of Indian mathematics is said to be the period between 400-1200 ACE. Aryabhata, Varahamihira, Brahmagupta, Bhaskara I, Mahavira, and Bhaskara II are some of the prominent names in this period. This period sees major ground breaking mathematical activity in the history of Indian mathematics. Aryabhatta in his Aryabhatiya comes up with first ever tables for sine and cosine values. He talks about quadratic equations, gave the value of pi till 4 decimals, whole number solutions to linear equations, performs astronomical calculations for solar and lunar eclipses and also proposes that the planets revolve around their own axis and also around the sun. This was way before Galileo's time and surprisingly nobody wanted Aryabhatta’s neck for proposing the theory!
Bhaskara II (11 century ACE) anticipated and conceived the concept of derivative, stated Role’s theorem and derived the differential of the sine function and contributed to development of Algebra and Trigonometry. His book Leelavati is a well known text among the Sanskrit scholars.
The Kerala School of mathematics between 1300-1600 ACE gave important results before they were rediscovered by the European world. Infinite geometric series, Taylor series, proof by induction and so on to name a few were discovered by this school.
If you want to know more click on the following links:
1. Indian Mathematics on Wikipedia
2. Indian Mathematics Index
Monday, June 15, 2009
The Economic Globe
William Nordhaus and Chen Xi have created interesting graphics for the world economy which highlight the relation between geophysical variables and economic growth. To access this paper click here. To access the impressive rotating economic globe, click here.
Some food for thought for aspiring geoeconomists:
1. Economic deserts of the world are cold regions.
2. Other than in United States and Europe, much of the economic activity is clustered along coastlines.
Some food for thought for aspiring geoeconomists:
1. Economic deserts of the world are cold regions.
2. Other than in United States and Europe, much of the economic activity is clustered along coastlines.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Relative Factor Abundance and Food!
Everytime I stand in a line to get my favorite wrap or sandwich I wonder how these food items became my favorite. A couple of years back when I was fresh of the boat, I was taken aback by what I then thought as a sheer lack of developed food culture. I thought all that they do is harvest and stuff it in a bread or wrap it in a tortilla (courtsey the Mexcians!) and put on a great smile while selling it you as food!
Coming from a land which boasts of thousands of years of evolved and complex food culture, it was almost impossible to resist passing a value judgement on the food in US. But it turns out that I was saved by economics again from turing into a 'desi snob' when it came to food.
In my class the other day, I was teaching the importance of technology and relative factor abundance in determining how people in different parts of the world do the same things differently. While doing so I realized that I somehow completely missed this point when it came to thinking about food. Now that I get that it seems obvious that producing food is just another economic activity and hence follows the rules of economics.
India being labor abundant than US has a much more labor intensive food culture. Hence food in India is almost always freshly prepared and involves relatively elaborate and complex recipies even when it comes to everyday food. Stocking up the freezers with frozen dinners is completely alien to Indians, even for them who can afford to do so. Reason is simple- labor is cheap, so why eat stale!
In US labor is costly. So no elaborate recipies- just plain simple toss and stuff or just microwave for 10 min. Sure, there must be some complex food recipes that probably see light of the day only on occassions. Otherwise everything is convinient and clean. It is not that Americans cannot develop a complex food culture and Indians can, but the way food is percieved and processed is just an optimal response to relative factor costs.
In an earlier piece on this blog we already saw why most of the western food is bland . Now we also know why it is so simple. So lets top it off by a new law of food economics- Cheaper the labor relative to capital (closer it is to the spice lands), more elaborate and complex (spicier) is the food culture. Ceteris paribus of course!
Coming from a land which boasts of thousands of years of evolved and complex food culture, it was almost impossible to resist passing a value judgement on the food in US. But it turns out that I was saved by economics again from turing into a 'desi snob' when it came to food.
In my class the other day, I was teaching the importance of technology and relative factor abundance in determining how people in different parts of the world do the same things differently. While doing so I realized that I somehow completely missed this point when it came to thinking about food. Now that I get that it seems obvious that producing food is just another economic activity and hence follows the rules of economics.
India being labor abundant than US has a much more labor intensive food culture. Hence food in India is almost always freshly prepared and involves relatively elaborate and complex recipies even when it comes to everyday food. Stocking up the freezers with frozen dinners is completely alien to Indians, even for them who can afford to do so. Reason is simple- labor is cheap, so why eat stale!
In US labor is costly. So no elaborate recipies- just plain simple toss and stuff or just microwave for 10 min. Sure, there must be some complex food recipes that probably see light of the day only on occassions. Otherwise everything is convinient and clean. It is not that Americans cannot develop a complex food culture and Indians can, but the way food is percieved and processed is just an optimal response to relative factor costs.
In an earlier piece on this blog we already saw why most of the western food is bland . Now we also know why it is so simple. So lets top it off by a new law of food economics- Cheaper the labor relative to capital (closer it is to the spice lands), more elaborate and complex (spicier) is the food culture. Ceteris paribus of course!
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Manglore and Cultural Policing
There are few times when I agree with GPD. This seems to be one of those. It is a write up on the Manglore incident-certainly insightful and written in a good taste. A must read!
For those who do not know what happened in Manglore, follow this link.
For those who do not know what happened in Manglore, follow this link.
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